New Delhi, June 29 (IANS) Wars were always fought outside of the ‘battlefield’ as well- through the classic operations of Espionage, Sabotage and Subversion conducted “covertly”.
‘Open warfare’ was always supplemented by Intelligence efforts to assess the strength and war plans of the enemy.
Post-Cold War, the world has seemingly passed into the era of “proxy wars”, in which militants and terrorists could be secretly infiltrated with weapons into the enemy territory where they would covertly plan to carry out attacks on strategic and military assets of the adversary, causing them substantial damage. This was also termed as an “asymmetric war”.
The anti-Soviet armed campaign in Afghanistan, run on the war cry of Jehad, was the best illustration of such a war and it was successful in driving the Soviet troops out of that country.
A proxy war damages the opponent economically, as was found to be the case with the Soviet Union, which collapsed primarily because of the economic burden of the Afghan war. It so happened that the year of Soviet dismemberment, 1991, was also the year that marked the success of the Information Technology Revolution, characterised by instant communication across geographical frontiers and the advent of the Information Age.
This created a new level of globalised competitiveness and opened the gates of the “knowledge economy”.
IT Revolution set the pace for ‘Information Wars’ of which ‘Influence’ operations are a part. Influence warfare is a strategic instrument that uses information and communication technologies to manipulate perceptions, shape public responses and achieve political and defence objectives, often without a direct military confrontation.
It involves influencing public opinion to undermine the adversary’s legitimacy. This is done through “narrative building”, disinformation and cyber operations.
In India’s experience, social media is used by opponents at home and the adversaries abroad-particularly by the Sino-Pak axis, to run down the government and sully the country’s image internationally.
China, unsurprisingly, has attracted notice for going beyond “influence warfare” to indulge in clandestine operations to interfere with elections in the US, its prime enemy, to alter the results to the Chinese advantage.
Kash Patel, appointed by US President Donald Trump as FBI Director, announced the declassification of intelligence reports that outlined an unconfirmed claim to the effect that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had mass-produced counterfeit American driving licenses as part of a larger scheme to interfere with the 2020 Presidential election.
The alleged objective was to facilitate fraudulent mail-in ballots to favour Joe Biden.
In August 2020, based on intelligence, the US Customs had reportedly seized nearly 20,000 fake driving licenses.
Kash Patel has submitted the reports to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley for further examination. This development follows another significant disclosure by FBI Director Christopher Wray in November 2022 that the FBI was monitoring reports about the Chinese Government having established unauthorised Police Stations in the US in outrageous violation of US sovereignty and all norms of law and order cooperation protocols.
Several US nationals of Chinese origin were said to have been arrested in April 2023 for running a “Police OutPost” in Manhattan and taking orders from China’s Ministry of Public Security for intimidating on social media any Chinese dissidents abroad and for projecting China’s image.
These are strikingly bold examples of how “influence warfare” was pursued.
In the recent India-Pakistan military conflict that followed the Pakistan-directed terror attack in Pahalgam, Chinese state media published unverified claims about Pakistan.
Pakistan’s propaganda that it had destroyed a BrahMos missile storage facility in India was spread by it, even though India had rubbished it as misinformation.
Leading Chinese papers, blogs, and social media promoted narratives backing Pakistan’s actions on the battlefield and insinuating that India’s moves could adversely affect regional stability. They echoed Pakistan’s version of events, built a perception that the country had been “successful” in the military confrontation. They claimed that Pakistan had the benefit of using Chinese weapons, including fighter jets, missiles and air defence systems.
While the Sino-Pak strategic alliance actively worked against India in the “information warfare” sphere, China collaborated with Pakistan on the military front as well.
Learning for India is that we should be strong not only in terms of being self-sufficient in defence and having friends across the geopolitical spectrum, but also well-informed in the matter of countering any propaganda offensive against us on social media and initiating effective diplomatic moves for that purpose.
There is an indirect war going on beyond the battlefield- influencing world opinion against us was part of the offensive of adversary that required a proper response. This adds to the responsibilities of the national Intelligence agencies as well as the diplomatic establishment in tracking the contours of the “influence warfare”.
Following Operation Sindoor, India, in a rare outreach effort, deputed seven multi-party teams of MPs and ex-diplomats -mostly led by leaders of the Opposition, to go round 32 world capitals for presenting India’s stand against terrorism and explaining Pakistan’s complicity in the Pahalgam attack.
On a plea from Pakistan DGMO, India, as a votary for peace, agreed to a ceasefire understanding – after having achieved the primary objective of targeting as many as nine terror bases in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Pakistan in retaliation.
If Trump, approached by a desperate Pakistan Army, promoted the idea of the ceasefire, his credit-seeking need not be interpreted necessarily as something that was at the cost of India’s image.
The Indian regime must continue to pursue whatever serves the interests of the nation well.
(The writer is a former Director of the Intelligence Bureau)
–IANS
pathak/svn